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North Sea Port goods transhipment drops for first time in two years

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Dry Bulk,

The seaborne transhipment of goods at the North Sea Port declined in 1Q23 by 4% due to a drop in liquid bulk goods in particular. This is the first decline in over two years. The EU sanctions against Russia are becoming more evident.

North Sea Port goods transhipment drops for first time in two years

In 1Q23, companies in the North Sea Port reported 17 million t of seaborne transhipment of goods. Compared to the same period in 2022, this is a decline of 4%. This decline is noteworthy on the one hand because since 3Q20 – the height of the COVID-19 crisis – the seaborne transhipment of goods continued to increase quarter after quarter, with the absolute record year of 2022 as a result. On the other hand, in the second half of this record year, it became clear that this growth would not continue. Since the beginning of 2023, the expectation was that the transhipment of goods would stabilise between 5 – 6 million tpm. The seaborne transhipment of goods in 1Q23 is in line with this expectation.

Dry bulk remains consistent, liquid bulk drops

In 1Q23, the seaborne transhipment of dry bulk recorded a slight increase, other segments showed less transhipment which is a break in the trend after the record year of 2022.

The transhipment of dry bulk rose slightly (+1%), and totalled 9.5 million t. Oilseeds and ores increased, the transhipment of coal, gypsum, fertilisers, cement, and metal scrap are declining.

The decline in liquid bulk (-13.9%) in particular is resulting in lower quarterly figures with a total of 3.6 million t. This decline can be seen with liquid petroleum products and the basic chemical products.

The transhipment of containers has declined (-5.7%) and totals 0.5 million t. This refers to an assortment of goods. The transhipment of fruits and vegetables by container has increased, however.

General cargo declined slightly (-4.1%) to 2.5 million t of goods. Here, it concerns a drop in steel and a slight fall in fruit and vegetables in breakbulk.

Ro-ro declined (-8.5%) to 0.9 million t.

Trend break in inland navigation

The total transhipment by inland navigation was 15.3 million t in 1Q23, a decline of 6.7%. This dip is mainly recorded in the transhipment of dry bulk goods. Just like with the seaborne transhipment in this quarter, inland navigation also broke the trend of increased goods transhipment that started at the end of 2020.

Consequences of the war in Ukraine are noticeable

In 1Q23, the geopolitical circumstances are now clearly being seen. After this quarter, Russia is now the seventh trading partner. With a total transhipment of 0.9 t of goods, the decline is nearly half. Before the war, Russia was still the number one trading partner. This decline is compensated by extra transhipment from Australia in particular.

In 1Q22, the consequences of the war for trade with Ukraine were not yet visible. This is not the case for 1Q23, with a clear decline of nearly a fifth. This transhipment still totalled almost 300 000 t.

Noteworthy is that Poland, with a growth of 184% to 0.5 million t, is by now the 15th trade partner. This confirms that grain from Ukraine is also coming over water from countries like Poland to Western Europe. For Romania, the same phenomenon can be observed: a transhipment increase of 144%. In percentage points, this remains limited to 0.1 million t.

Conclusion and forecast

The transhipment of goods in 1Q23 shows a dip when compared to the same period in the strongest year ever, 2022. Seaborne transhipment shows a clear decline in liquid bulk, and with inland navigation, this decline is largely in dry bulk goods. The expectation is that the seaborne transhipment of goods will be between 5 – 6 million tpm in the coming period. It is also expected that trade with Russia and Ukraine will fall further.

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