Editorial comment
‘Deadline’: a word that finds itself unerringly at the forefront of the thoughts of many of us on a daily basis. A quick online search indicates that the word – in the sense that it is commonly understood today – began to be used approximately a century ago. According to Merriam-Webster, however, ‘deadline’ may have first been used in the course of the American Civil War during the 1860s to denote “a line drawn within or around a prison that a prisoner passes at the risk of being shot”.
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‘Deadline’: a word that finds itself unerringly at the forefront of the thoughts of many of us on a daily basis. A quick online search indicates that the word – in the sense that it is commonly understood today – began to be used approximately a century ago. According to Merriam-Webster, however, ‘deadline’ may have first been used in the course of the American Civil War during the 1860s to denote “a line drawn within or around a prison that a prisoner passes at the risk of being shot”.
Before this macabre digression goes any further, I’ll turn attention to some rather more pertinent deadlines. Here in the UK, CF Industries and the government have extended a deal to support CO2 production from the former’s Billingham fertilizer plant while global gas prices remain high; there had been concerns that the plant could again close after the expiry of the 3-month deal on 31 January, prompting calls for an extension from industries that rely on CO2, such as food processing and nuclear power. The press release from the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy announcing the agreement offered few specifics however. It’s believed the deal will run until the spring at the least. Whether gas prices will have fallen enough by then for CF Industries to stand on its feet again remains a moot point – conflict between Russia and Ukraine could spike the opening of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which starts in Russia, and prolong energy insecurity in Europe.
Elsewhere on the continent, industry players have another impending deadline to meet. By 1 April companies will have been expected to stop purchasing potash from Belarus Potash Co. (BPC), the export arm of Belaruskali, as part of a programme of sanctions imposed on Belarus by the US and the EU. Lithuanian Railways has made an early move by ending its transportation of Belarusian potash to the port of Klaipeda, from where it would normally be shipped onwards to India, China and Brazil. In a recent commentary, CRU said these developments could “upend global MOP [muriate of potash] trade flows”, albeit key consumers such as India, China and Brazil have not joined the West in withdrawing from business with BPC. 1 Turmoil for one is opportunity for another though: Nutrien has said it could increase its potash production to take advantage of the sanctions on Belaruskali and any that may be slapped on EuroChem and Uralkali, should Russia’s President Vladimir Putin send his troops into Ukraine.
All told, it seems as if the turbulence that characterised the fertilizer industry’s fortunes in 2021 appears unlikely to abate any time soon. One date in the calendar that is unambiguously one to look forward to is 7 – 9 March, when the 14th CRU Phosphates Conference & Exhibition convenes in Tampa, US. Whether you’re attending in-person or virtually, you can set the scene for proceedings by reading a report on the phosphates market from Sylvia Traganida of ICIS, starting on p. 9.
Reference
- LAWSON, C., CRU Group, ‘CRU Fertilizers – Top Ten Calls of 2022 ’, https://www.crugroup.com/knowledge-and-insights/insights/2022/cru-fertilizers-top-ten-calls-of-2022/ (10 January 2022).
