Positive outlook for wheat forecasts
Published by Oliver Kleinschmidt,
Editorial Assistant
Dry Bulk,
For wheat, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) trimmed its forecast for domestic stocks at the close of the season by 300 000 t to 17.6 million t. However, it trimmed its US price outlook by US$0.10 per billion units, to US$7.20 per billion units, nonetheless "based on prices received to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of 2023/24".
At a world level, the forecast for major exporters’ stocks was raised by 3 million t overall, to 58.7 million t, led by a 2.5 million t increase to 15.3 million t in the figure for EU inventories, seen as swollen by imports from Ukraine.
“Despite the difficulties reaching more distant markets, Ukraine has been able to expand wheat exports to EU member states,” the USDA said. “Given the strong pace of imports from Ukraine, EU wheat imports are forecast up 2.5 million t this month to 11 million t.”
Despite the increases, major exporter stock-to-use ratio remains at a decade low. However, estimates for the UK, including a 14.3 million t harvest figure, were left unchanged.
For 2024/25, the USDA in a separate briefing reported its winter wheat sowings at 13.9 million ha. – a drop of 1 million ha. year on year, and 370 000 ha. shy of investors’ forecasts.
Soft red winter wheat, as traded in Chicago, led the area decline, with a 13% decrease, compared with 5% shrinkage in acres seeded with hard red winter wheat and with white winter wheat.
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