A combination of strong trade and high port waiting times will see the trade employ around 15% of Capesize vessels in 2025.
Massive year on year growth in Guinean bauxite trade has also absorbed Capesize substantial tonnage in 2025, contributing to recent freight market spikes.
In its Q3 Dry Bulk Market Report, MSI notes that a staggering 34% year on year rise in export volumes in the first half of the year had a significant impact on demand, an effect further amplified by high levels of port congestion caused by transhipment operations.
The daily average number of vessels captured waiting in Guinean ports rose by 77% between January and June 2025 compared with the same period in 2024.
Higher congestion translated into longer port stays for Capesize (170+ k Dwt) tonnage, up from an average of around 13 days in 2024 to peaks of 17 and 15 days in March and April 2025, further tightening market balances. In absolute terms, China imported 103 MnT of bauxite over the first half of 2025. The significance of this figure becomes clearer when set against the cap on domestic aluminium production, which the Chinese government continues to enforce at 45 MnT per annum.
Assuming a modest 2.4% yoy increase (the ytd growth figure), primary aluminium output is on track to reach an annualised figure of around 44.2 MnT. Given that it takes roughly four t of bauxite to produce one t of aluminium, current import levels appear to be outpacing immediate production needs.
“This disconnect between import volumes and demand has led to a substantial build-up in domestic stockpiles. Chinese bauxite inventories rose from 16.7 MnT at the beginning of January to 29.6 MnT by the end of July, a clear sign that supply is running ahead of consumption,” said Will Fray, Director, Maritime Strategies International. “Continued stockpiling activity could have a strong bearing on the trade outlook; this is difficult to quantify, though Chart 2 shows that another 12 MnT would breach the historical maximum,” he adds.
Part of the recent build-up in Chinese bauxite inventories may reflect strategic stockpiling ahead of anticipated supply disruptions.
In particular, buyers may be accounting for the seasonality of bauxite exports from Guinea, which are typically affected by the West African monsoon.
The support provided to the Capesize market through the first half of 2025 is expected to diminish in H2. Export volumes from Guinea typically decline during the West African monsoon season, when heavier rainfall disrupts mining activity.
At the same time, Chinese import demand is likely to ease, with a cap on aluminium production and stockpiles built up in H1 reducing the need for fresh cargoes. Together, these factors suggest the trade will remain an important source of demand for Capesizes but to a lesser extent in the second half of the year. Looking ahead to 2026, growth is expected to diminish with Guinea’s export gains contributing incrementally less.
Click here for free registration to Dry Bulk